Scientific Definition
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
Plain-English Definition
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
Feynman Explanation
The market is brilliant when we beat it and irrational when it beats us.
Core Principle
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
Mechanisms
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
The market is brilliant when we beat it and irrational when it beats us.
Examples
- Q1 success: 'leadership.' Q2 miss: 'macro headwinds.'
- Lessons are lost because the loss didn't really belong to us.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Standing rule: same attribution framework for wins and losses.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Standing rule: same attribution framework for wins and losses.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.