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The Incentives Lab
HBT-IDN-0015 · Dimension IDN · Identity

Illusory Superiority

Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.

Self Bias·Cognitive Bias·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.

Plain-English Definition

Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.

Feynman Explanation

93% of drivers and 100% of executives believe they're above average.

Core Principle

Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.

Behavioral Economic

Pending editorial review.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

93% of drivers and 100% of executives believe they're above average.

Examples

Everyday
  • Performance reviews where everyone rates themselves top quartile.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Calibration broken because nobody is willing to be the middle.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • External benchmarking. Anonymous peer reviews.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
'Our AI strategy is more advanced than peers' — said by every CEO at the same conference.
Amplifying Incentives
Calibration broken because nobody is willing to be the middle.
Org Failure Modes
Calibration broken because nobody is willing to be the middle.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
External benchmarking. Anonymous peer reviews.
Diagnostic Questions
  • External benchmarking. Anonymous peer reviews.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
External benchmarking. Anonymous peer reviews.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
'Our AI strategy is more advanced than peers' — said by every CEO at the same conference.
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-IDN-0015 · IDN
Illusory Superiority
ISBBBias Blind SpotDEDunning-Kruger EffectEGEmpathy GapIOIllusion of ControlIOIllusion of ValidityOEOstrich EffectOEOverconfidence EffectPBProjection BiasRBRestraint BiasSBSelf-Serving Bias

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.