Scientific Definition
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
Plain-English Definition
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
Feynman Explanation
If your forecast has no error bars, it has no forecast.
Core Principle
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
Mechanisms
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
If your forecast has no error bars, it has no forecast.
Examples
- A leader is 90% sure of a prediction that hits 60% of the time.
- Strategic bets sized to confidence levels that haven't been earned.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Track personal forecast accuracy. Make calibration visible.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Track personal forecast accuracy. Make calibration visible.
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Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
Contradictory evidence sometimes deepens the original belief.