Scientific Definition
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Plain-English Definition
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Feynman Explanation
We hire when we're busy and fire when we're slow. Forever surprised.
Core Principle
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Mechanisms
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
We hire when we're busy and fire when we're slow. Forever surprised.
Examples
- Hiring binges at the top of the cycle; layoffs at the bottom. Both wrong.
- Workforce planning lagging the economic cycle by 12 months, structurally.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Plan against reference cycles, not current emotion.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Plan against reference cycles, not current emotion.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.