Scientific Definition
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Plain-English Definition
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Feynman Explanation
The least informed person in the room often has the strongest opinion in it.
Core Principle
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Mechanisms
Low ability paired with high confidence.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The least informed person in the room often has the strongest opinion in it.
Examples
- Six weeks of prompting and someone is now the org's 'AI strategist.'
- Confidence promoted over calibrated competence at every level.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Reward calibration. Ask for confidence intervals on every claim.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Reward calibration. Ask for confidence intervals on every claim.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
Contradictory evidence sometimes deepens the original belief.