Scientific Definition
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Plain-English Definition
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Feynman Explanation
Every policy written in peacetime fails on its first real escalation.
Core Principle
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Mechanisms
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Every policy written in peacetime fails on its first real escalation.
Examples
- Crisis response plans that haven't survived the first crisis they were used in.
- Strategy written in calm; executed in panic.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Tabletop-test every plan in the conditions it's meant to survive.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Tabletop-test every plan in the conditions it's meant to survive.
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Interactive Mini Network
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Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.