Scientific Definition
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Plain-English Definition
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Feynman Explanation
Convincing presentations are not the same as accurate ones.
Core Principle
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Mechanisms
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Pending editorial review.
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Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Convincing presentations are not the same as accurate ones.
Examples
- Interview-based hiring decisions trusted far past their validated predictive power.
- Decisions made with confidence calibrated to presentation polish.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Track decision quality over time. Predictions vs. outcomes. Publicly.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Track decision quality over time. Predictions vs. outcomes. Publicly.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.