Scientific Definition
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Plain-English Definition
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Feynman Explanation
Detailed planning of things that were going to happen anyway.
Core Principle
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Mechanisms
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
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Pending editorial review.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Detailed planning of things that were going to happen anyway.
Examples
- Quarterly forecasting rituals on numbers driven mostly by macro.
- Effort focused on the visible, controllable theater rather than the actual levers.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Audit which inputs actually move outcomes. Defund the theater.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Audit which inputs actually move outcomes. Defund the theater.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.