Scientific Definition
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Plain-English Definition
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Feynman Explanation
We'll definitely cut the project at the next gate. (We won't.)
Core Principle
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
Mechanisms
Overestimating our ability to control future impulses.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
We'll definitely cut the project at the next gate. (We won't.)
Examples
- Investment committees that pre-commit to 'discipline' and never exhibit it.
- Capital allocation that systematically fails to honor its own kill criteria.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Automate the kill criteria. Remove the moment of weakness from the loop.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Automate the kill criteria. Remove the moment of weakness from the loop.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.
Cold-state decisions don't survive hot-state moments.
Believing we influence outcomes that are largely random.
Confidence in predictions outruns their actual accuracy.
Most of us think we're above average. Statistically, we can't be.
Avoiding information that might be unpleasant.
Confidence routinely outruns calibration.
We assume our current state will persist into the future.
Wins are ours; losses are circumstantial.
We assume others notice us more than they do.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.