Scientific Definition
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
Plain-English Definition
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
Feynman Explanation
Every six-month transformation is, in fact, three years.
Core Principle
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
Mechanisms
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Every six-month transformation is, in fact, three years.
Examples
- An annual plan that slips by 40% — again.
- Strategy commitments made on numbers we've never once hit.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Multiply internal estimates by your own historical slip ratio.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Multiply internal estimates by your own historical slip ratio.
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Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Believing a specific scenario is more likely than its more general one.
Believing past random events influence future independent ones.
Believing streaks predict future streaks.
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Underestimating the probability of bad outcomes — especially to us.
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Systematic deviations from rationality in judgment.
Throwing more in because we already threw a lot in.
Generalizing from winners while ignoring identical losers.