Scientific Definition
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
Plain-English Definition
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
Feynman Explanation
The devil we know consumes more capital than the angel we don't.
Core Principle
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
Mechanisms
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
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Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The devil we know consumes more capital than the angel we don't.
Examples
- Sticking with a measurable but declining channel over an unmeasured but growing one.
- Innovation underfunded because ROI 'isn't proven yet.'
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Fund discovery as a separate budget with its own success criteria.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Fund discovery as a separate budget with its own success criteria.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Believing a specific scenario is more likely than its more general one.
Believing past random events influence future independent ones.
Believing streaks predict future streaks.
Underestimating the probability of bad outcomes — especially to us.
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Systematic deviations from rationality in judgment.
Losses hurt roughly twice as much as equivalent gains feel good.
Doing something feels safer than doing nothing — even when nothing wins.