Scientific Definition
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Plain-English Definition
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Feynman Explanation
We'll spend $10M to make a 1% risk a 0% risk and ignore the 20% one entirely.
Core Principle
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Mechanisms
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
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Pending editorial review.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
We'll spend $10M to make a 1% risk a 0% risk and ignore the 20% one entirely.
Examples
- Compliance budgets stuffed into edge cases while material risks stay open.
- Risk theater that consumes capacity without reducing exposure.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Risk-weight every dollar of mitigation against expected loss reduction.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Risk-weight every dollar of mitigation against expected loss reduction.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Believing a specific scenario is more likely than its more general one.
Believing past random events influence future independent ones.
Believing streaks predict future streaks.
Underestimating the probability of bad outcomes — especially to us.
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
Systematic deviations from rationality in judgment.
Doing something feels safer than doing nothing — even when nothing wins.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.