Scientific Definition
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
Plain-English Definition
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
Feynman Explanation
Conservative forecasting is just optimism in the other direction.
Core Principle
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
Mechanisms
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
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Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Conservative forecasting is just optimism in the other direction.
Examples
- Sales plans set so low that hitting them is meaningless.
- Performance theater in both directions: sandbagging and stretching.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Symmetric scenario planning: bull, base, bear — with probabilities attached.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Symmetric scenario planning: bull, base, bear — with probabilities attached.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Believing a specific scenario is more likely than its more general one.
Believing past random events influence future independent ones.
Believing streaks predict future streaks.
Underestimating the probability of bad outcomes — especially to us.
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Systematic deviations from rationality in judgment.
Doing something feels safer than doing nothing — even when nothing wins.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.