Scientific Definition
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Plain-English Definition
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Feynman Explanation
Every opportunity looks like a trap to a sufficiently tired team.
Core Principle
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Mechanisms
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Every opportunity looks like a trap to a sufficiently tired team.
Examples
- Killing a real opportunity because the worst case feels more real than the base case.
- Risk-averse cultures starve their own pipelines.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Forced upside analysis. Quantify the cost of not acting.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Forced upside analysis. Quantify the cost of not acting.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Believing a specific scenario is more likely than its more general one.
Believing past random events influence future independent ones.
Believing streaks predict future streaks.
Underestimating the probability of bad outcomes — especially to us.
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Systematic deviations from rationality in judgment.
Doing something feels safer than doing nothing — even when nothing wins.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.