Scientific Definition
We expect small samples to reflect population properties.
Plain-English Definition
We expect small samples to reflect population properties.
Feynman Explanation
Three data points do not a trend make. Unless you are in a hurry.
Core Principle
We expect small samples to reflect population properties.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
We expect small samples to reflect population properties.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Small samples create false confidence.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Three data points do not a trend make. Unless you are in a hurry.
Examples
- A three-month sales trend drives a strategy change.
- Small samples create false confidence.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Use confidence intervals and resist overinterpreting small samples.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Use confidence intervals and resist overinterpreting small samples.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
As sample size grows, sample averages converge to expected values.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.