Scientific Definition
As sample size grows, sample averages converge to expected values.
Plain-English Definition
As sample size grows, sample averages converge to expected values.
Feynman Explanation
Small samples lie. Large samples whisper the truth.
Core Principle
As sample size grows, sample averages converge to expected values.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
As sample size grows, sample averages converge to expected values.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Big decisions should rest on big samples.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Small samples lie. Large samples whisper the truth.
Examples
- A few bad customers are noise; thousands are a signal.
- Big decisions should rest on big samples.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Demand larger samples before drawing conclusions.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Demand larger samples before drawing conclusions.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We expect small samples to reflect population properties.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.