Scientific Definition
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
Plain-English Definition
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
Feynman Explanation
A fast wrong answer is often better than a slow exact one.
Core Principle
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Executives need ballpark numbers before precise models.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
A fast wrong answer is often better than a slow exact one.
Examples
- Estimating market size by breaking it into known components.
- Executives need ballpark numbers before precise models.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Train teams to do back-of-the-envelope estimates before detailed analysis.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Train teams to do back-of-the-envelope estimates before detailed analysis.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Bet size optimized to maximize long-run growth without ruin.