Scientific Definition
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Plain-English Definition
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Feynman Explanation
A five-star review from two customers is not the same as from two thousand.
Core Principle
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Small samples produce noisy conclusions.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
A five-star review from two customers is not the same as from two thousand.
Examples
- A small pilot is treated as definitive proof.
- Small samples produce noisy conclusions.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Require confidence intervals and sample-size reasoning.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Require confidence intervals and sample-size reasoning.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
Bet size optimized to maximize long-run growth without ruin.