Scientific Definition
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
Plain-English Definition
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
Feynman Explanation
Russian roulette has a great expected value. Once.
Core Principle
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Don't confuse population statistics with personal survival.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Russian roulette has a great expected value. Once.
Examples
- Strategies with great averages that bankrupt individual players.
- Don't confuse population statistics with personal survival.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Always ask: 'Can I survive each individual draw, not just the average?'
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Always ask: 'Can I survive each individual draw, not just the average?'
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Bet size optimized to maximize long-run growth without ruin.