Scientific Definition
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Plain-English Definition
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Feynman Explanation
Single-point forecasts are statements of preference, not knowledge.
Core Principle
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Strategic decisions made on means hide tail risks.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Single-point forecasts are statements of preference, not knowledge.
Examples
- Revenue forecasts as P50/P90 ranges rather than single numbers.
- Strategic decisions made on means hide tail risks.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Require distribution-shaped forecasts on every major call.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Require distribution-shaped forecasts on every major call.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Bet size optimized to maximize long-run growth without ruin.