Scientific Definition
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Plain-English Definition
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Feynman Explanation
In a big enough sample, the miraculous is mandatory.
Core Principle
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Don't build strategy around 'too unlikely to be random' patterns.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
In a big enough sample, the miraculous is mandatory.
Examples
- Two competitors launching similar features the same week.
- Don't build strategy around 'too unlikely to be random' patterns.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Compute the actual probability before assigning meaning.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Compute the actual probability before assigning meaning.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Bet size optimized to maximize long-run growth without ruin.