Scientific Definition
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Plain-English Definition
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Feynman Explanation
Beliefs are bets. New evidence is the table tilting.
Core Principle
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Strategic posture should evolve continuously, not in cliffs.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Beliefs are bets. New evidence is the table tilting.
Examples
- Revising a sales forecast as the quarter develops, not just at quarter-end.
- Strategic posture should evolve continuously, not in cliffs.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Document prior + update on every major call. Compare to outcome.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Document prior + update on every major call. Compare to outcome.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.
Bet size optimized to maximize long-run growth without ruin.