Scientific Definition
We judge probability by absolute counts rather than ratios.
Plain-English Definition
We judge probability by absolute counts rather than ratios.
Feynman Explanation
1 in 10 feels safer than 9 in 100. It isn't.
Core Principle
We judge probability by absolute counts rather than ratios.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
We judge probability by absolute counts rather than ratios.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pricing, risk communication, and dashboards mislead via raw counts.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
1 in 10 feels safer than 9 in 100. It isn't.
Examples
- People prefer drawing from a jar with 9 winners in 100 over one with 1 in 10.
- Pricing, risk communication, and dashboards mislead via raw counts.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Always present both the ratio and the denominator. Force the comparison.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Always present both the ratio and the denominator. Force the comparison.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Your sample isn't random.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.