Scientific Definition
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
Plain-English Definition
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
Feynman Explanation
We pay a premium just to know the odds.
Core Principle
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Innovation budgets bleed quietly to ambiguity aversion.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
We pay a premium just to know the odds.
Examples
- Sticking with a familiar product even when the unknown one is statistically better.
- Innovation budgets bleed quietly to ambiguity aversion.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Estimate the unknowns explicitly — even rough ranges beat hand-waving.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Estimate the unknowns explicitly — even rough ranges beat hand-waving.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We overweight outcomes that are certain relative to merely probable ones.
We overweight tiny probabilities of large gains or losses.
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Influence tactics weaponized — manipulation, coercion, exploitation of trust.
Dread weighs roughly double in our calculus what the equivalent gain does.
Build buffers so small mistakes don't become fatal.
Frequent evaluation amplifies loss aversion and produces overly conservative behavior.
The moment after which reversing a course becomes impossible or extremely costly.
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
People take more risks when they feel safer.
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Risk decisions are driven by current emotion — not just by computed probabilities.