Scientific Definition
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
Plain-English Definition
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
Feynman Explanation
Fear and hope both make math disappear.
Core Principle
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
Pending editorial review.
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Emotional risks get funded; boring risks get ignored.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Fear and hope both make math disappear.
Examples
- Spending disproportionately on a sensational but rare risk.
- Emotional risks get funded; boring risks get ignored.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Quantify probabilities before allocating resources to risks.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Quantify probabilities before allocating resources to risks.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
We overweight outcomes that are certain relative to merely probable ones.
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Influence tactics weaponized — manipulation, coercion, exploitation of trust.
Dread weighs roughly double in our calculus what the equivalent gain does.
Build buffers so small mistakes don't become fatal.
Frequent evaluation amplifies loss aversion and produces overly conservative behavior.
The moment after which reversing a course becomes impossible or extremely costly.
We overweight tiny probabilities of large gains or losses.
People take more risks when they feel safer.
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Risk decisions are driven by current emotion — not just by computed probabilities.