Scientific Definition
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Plain-English Definition
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Feynman Explanation
Hunt for convex. Run from concave.
Core Principle
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Choosing strategies whose error distributions are kind.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Hunt for convex. Run from concave.
Examples
- Venture capital is convex. Insurance underwriting is concave.
- Choosing strategies whose error distributions are kind.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Plot every initiative on the convex/concave axis before committing.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Plot every initiative on the convex/concave axis before committing.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
We overweight outcomes that are certain relative to merely probable ones.
Influence tactics weaponized — manipulation, coercion, exploitation of trust.
Dread weighs roughly double in our calculus what the equivalent gain does.
Build buffers so small mistakes don't become fatal.
Frequent evaluation amplifies loss aversion and produces overly conservative behavior.
The moment after which reversing a course becomes impossible or extremely costly.
We overweight tiny probabilities of large gains or losses.
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
People take more risks when they feel safer.
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Risk decisions are driven by current emotion — not just by computed probabilities.