Scientific Definition
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Plain-English Definition
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Feynman Explanation
We confuse the two and price both wrong.
Core Principle
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Risk has known probabilities. Uncertainty doesn't.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Mis-pricing uncertainty as risk and missing the real tail.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
We confuse the two and price both wrong.
Examples
- Casino games (risk) vs. AI regulation in 2027 (uncertainty).
- Mis-pricing uncertainty as risk and missing the real tail.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Tag every assumption: known distribution or genuine unknown?
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Tag every assumption: known distribution or genuine unknown?
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Preferring options with known probabilities over options with unknown ones.
We overweight outcomes that are certain relative to merely probable ones.
Convex payoffs gain more than they lose; concave do the opposite.
Influence tactics weaponized — manipulation, coercion, exploitation of trust.
Dread weighs roughly double in our calculus what the equivalent gain does.
Build buffers so small mistakes don't become fatal.
Frequent evaluation amplifies loss aversion and produces overly conservative behavior.
The moment after which reversing a course becomes impossible or extremely costly.
We overweight tiny probabilities of large gains or losses.
We ignore probability when outcomes are emotionally charged.
People take more risks when they feel safer.
Risk decisions are driven by current emotion — not just by computed probabilities.