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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0247 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Diversification Bias

We choose more variety than we'll actually want when picking for the future all at once.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

We choose more variety than we'll actually want when picking for the future all at once.

Plain-English Definition

We choose more variety than we'll actually want when picking for the future all at once.

Feynman Explanation

The snack assortment you bought Sunday is the snack assortment you'll regret Wednesday.

Core Principle

We choose more variety than we'll actually want when picking for the future all at once.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

We choose more variety than we'll actually want when picking for the future all at once.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Subscription bundles and feature menus overestimate variety preference.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

The snack assortment you bought Sunday is the snack assortment you'll regret Wednesday.

Examples

Everyday
  • Buying six different flavors for the week; eating the same one each day in practice.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Subscription bundles and feature menus overestimate variety preference.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Sequential choices reveal real preference better than simultaneous ones.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Subscription bundles and feature menus overestimate variety preference.
Amplifying Incentives
Subscription bundles and feature menus overestimate variety preference.
Org Failure Modes
Subscription bundles and feature menus overestimate variety preference.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Sequential choices reveal real preference better than simultaneous ones.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Sequential choices reveal real preference better than simultaneous ones.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Sequential choices reveal real preference better than simultaneous ones.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0247 · COG
Diversification Bias
DBRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.