Scientific Definition
Judging a decision by its outcome rather than by the quality of the process.
Plain-English Definition
Judging a decision by its outcome rather than by the quality of the process.
Feynman Explanation
A good result makes a bad decision look genius.
Core Principle
Judging a decision by its outcome rather than by the quality of the process.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Judging a decision by its outcome rather than by the quality of the process.
Pending editorial review.
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Outcome bias rewards luck and punishes sound judgment.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
A good result makes a bad decision look genius.
Examples
- A risky gamble is praised because it happened to pay off.
- Outcome bias rewards luck and punishes sound judgment.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Evaluate decisions by the information available at the time.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Evaluate decisions by the information available at the time.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
Two options seen side-by-side look more different than they are in isolation.
We choose more variety than we'll actually want when picking for the future all at once.
We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.
Re-orient any conversation from 'what's wrong / whose fault' to 'what do we want and how do we get it.'
A goal stated in positive, sensory-specific, self-initiated, contextualized, and ecologically sound terms.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.