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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0385 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Impact Bias

We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.

Plain-English Definition

We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.

Feynman Explanation

The bad news will not hurt as much as you fear. The good news will not last as long as you hope.

Core Principle

We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

We overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

People adapt faster than expected to both wins and losses.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

The bad news will not hurt as much as you fear. The good news will not last as long as you hope.

Examples

Everyday
  • A feared reorganization is less disruptive than predicted.
Modern (Organizational)
  • People adapt faster than expected to both wins and losses.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Use historical adaptation data, not imagination, to predict impact.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
People adapt faster than expected to both wins and losses.
Amplifying Incentives
People adapt faster than expected to both wins and losses.
Org Failure Modes
People adapt faster than expected to both wins and losses.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Use historical adaptation data, not imagination, to predict impact.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Use historical adaptation data, not imagination, to predict impact.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Use historical adaptation data, not imagination, to predict impact.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0385 · COG
Impact Bias
IBRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.