Correlation Implies Causation is treating two things that move together as one causing the other. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0194, within the Causation Fallacy family. The core principle: treating two things that move together as one causing the other. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
Scientific Definition
Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.
Plain-English Definition
Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.
Feynman Explanation
Ice cream sales correlate with drownings. Outlaw ice cream.
Core Principle
Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.
Mechanisms
Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Ice cream sales correlate with drownings. Outlaw ice cream.
Examples
- 'Top performers all use this tool, so the tool produces top performance.'
- Performance management built on confounded variables.
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Original analysis from The Incentives Lab — how this element behaves inside real payoff structures.
Why this element matters to incentive design
When this element shows up in a diagnostic, the instinct is to train people out of it. Training rarely moves it. The mechanism underneath it is straightforward: treating two things that move together as one causing the other. You can recognize it in the field by its signature: ice cream sales correlate with drownings. Outlaw ice cream. Every element in the Cognition dimension changes the perceived payoff of an action before the action happens, which is exactly where incentive design has leverage.
How it gets exploited
Left undesigned, performance management built on confounded variables. It is amplified whenever performance management built on confounded variables. Inside organizations that shows up as performance management built on confounded variables. The pattern is the same one Goodhart's Law describes: the measurable proxy attracts the effort, and the purpose behind it quietly loses funding.
How the Lab designs around it
The redesign move is to make the desired behavior observable, remove whatever currently pays for its opposite, and attach the reward to the behavior rather than to the noisy outcome downstream of it. Measure the behavior, not the sentiment. A survey will tell you how people feel about this; only observed action tells you whether it changed.
Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
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Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
If A then B; B happened; therefore A.
Reasoning backward from outcomes to motives.
With this, therefore because of this.
If A then B; not A; therefore not B.
Stacking so many tenuous links that the conclusion sounds clever.
B followed A, therefore A caused B.
Assuming one cause where many are at play.
A small step inevitably leads to extreme consequences.
Small step → catastrophic outcome, without the intermediate causal links.
Attacking the person rather than the argument.
A single story used as proof of a general claim.
It's true because authority says so.
Where Correlation Implies Causation is cited in the corpus
Essays, field guides, and diagnostics from The Incentives Lab that apply this element.
- EssayGoodhart's Law in the Real World
How measurable proxies capture judgment.
- EssayThe Perverse Incentives Hiding in Your KPIs
Cognitive shortcuts turned into scorecards.
- ReferenceThe Periodic Table of Human Behavior
The full 1,267-element map this page belongs to.
- ReferenceThe incentive glossary
Definitions for every mental model, bias, and fallacy in the corpus.
Questions about Correlation Implies Causation
- What is Correlation Implies Causation?
- Correlation Implies Causation is treating two things that move together as one causing the other. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0194, within the Causation Fallacy family. The core principle: treating two things that move together as one causing the other. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
- What is an example of Correlation Implies Causation?
- Performance management built on confounded variables. The Incentives Lab catalogs everyday, organizational, and historical instances of this element on its Human Behavior Taxonomy™ page (HBT-COG-0194).
- How is Correlation Implies Causation exploited?
- Performance management built on confounded variables.
- How do you design around Correlation Implies Causation?
- Name the behavior you want in observable terms, remove what currently pays for the opposite, attach the reward to the behavior rather than a lagging proxy, and publish how you will detect gaming.
- Which behavioral dimension does Correlation Implies Causation belong to?
- Correlation Implies Causation is classified in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™, family "Causation Fallacy", class "Logical Fallacy". Its permanent identifier is HBT-COG-0194 and its evidence grade is B.