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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0020 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Affirming the Consequent

If A then B; B happened; therefore A.

Causation Fallacy·Logical Fallacy·Grade B·stub· enriching…

Scientific Definition

If A then B; B happened; therefore A.

Plain-English Definition

If A then B; B happened; therefore A.

Feynman Explanation

Top performers love the bonus. So the bonus makes top performers. (No.)

Core Principle

If A then B; B happened; therefore A.

Mechanisms

Psychological

If A then B; B happened; therefore A.

Behavioral Economic

Pending editorial review.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Top performers love the bonus. So the bonus makes top performers. (No.)

Examples

Everyday
  • Promoting bonus expansion because high performers always cash theirs.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Correlation upgraded to causation in performance management.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

Pending editorial review.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Correlation upgraded to causation in performance management.
Amplifying Incentives
Correlation upgraded to causation in performance management.
Org Failure Modes
Correlation upgraded to causation in performance management.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Diagnostic Questions

Pending editorial review.

Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0020 · COG
Affirming the Consequent
ATAFArgument from Final …CICorrelation Implies …CHCum Hoc Ergo Propter…DTDenying the AntecedentGRGalaxy-Brain ReasoningPHPost Hoc Ergo Propte…SCSingle Cause FallacySSSlippery SlopeSSSlippery Slope (caus…AHAd Hominem

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.