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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0194 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Correlation Implies Causation

Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.

Causation Fallacy·Logical Fallacy·Grade B·stub· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.

Plain-English Definition

Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.

Feynman Explanation

Ice cream sales correlate with drownings. Outlaw ice cream.

Core Principle

Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.

Behavioral Economic

Pending editorial review.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Ice cream sales correlate with drownings. Outlaw ice cream.

Examples

Everyday
  • 'Top performers all use this tool, so the tool produces top performance.'
Modern (Organizational)
  • Performance management built on confounded variables.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

Pending editorial review.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Performance management built on confounded variables.
Amplifying Incentives
Performance management built on confounded variables.
Org Failure Modes
Performance management built on confounded variables.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Diagnostic Questions

Pending editorial review.

Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0194 · COG
Correlation Implies Causation
CIATAffirming the Conseq…AFArgument from Final …CHCum Hoc Ergo Propter…DTDenying the AntecedentGRGalaxy-Brain ReasoningPHPost Hoc Ergo Propte…SCSingle Cause FallacySSSlippery SlopeSSSlippery Slope (caus…AHAd Hominem

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.