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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0647 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Sunk Cost

Past investment should not influence future decisions.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Past investment should not influence future decisions.

Plain-English Definition

Past investment should not influence future decisions.

Feynman Explanation

It is gone. The only question is whether the next dollar is worth it.

Core Principle

Past investment should not influence future decisions.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Past investment should not influence future decisions.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Sunk cost logic destroys capital allocation.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

It is gone. The only question is whether the next dollar is worth it.

Examples

Everyday
  • Continuing a failing project because so much has already been spent.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Sunk cost logic destroys capital allocation.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Ask: 'If we were starting today, would we fund this?'

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Sunk cost logic destroys capital allocation.
Amplifying Incentives
Sunk cost logic destroys capital allocation.
Org Failure Modes
Sunk cost logic destroys capital allocation.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Ask: 'If we were starting today, would we fund this?'
Diagnostic Questions
  • Ask: 'If we were starting today, would we fund this?'
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Ask: 'If we were starting today, would we fund this?'
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0647 · COG
Sunk Cost
SCRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.