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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0648 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Sunk Cost (model form)

Past investment is irrelevant to future decisions.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Past investment is irrelevant to future decisions.

Plain-English Definition

Past investment is irrelevant to future decisions.

Feynman Explanation

It's already gone. The only question is what's next.

Core Principle

Past investment is irrelevant to future decisions.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Past investment is irrelevant to future decisions.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Capital reallocation discipline.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

It's already gone. The only question is what's next.

Examples

Everyday
  • Killing a project on its forward economics, not its history.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Capital reallocation discipline.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Decision template that asks: 'If we were starting fresh today, would we fund this?'

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Capital reallocation discipline.
Amplifying Incentives
Capital reallocation discipline.
Org Failure Modes
Capital reallocation discipline.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Decision template that asks: 'If we were starting fresh today, would we fund this?'
Diagnostic Questions
  • Decision template that asks: 'If we were starting fresh today, would we fund this?'
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Decision template that asks: 'If we were starting fresh today, would we fund this?'
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0648 · COG
Sunk Cost (model form)
SCRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.