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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0585 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Risk Aversion

Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.

Decision·Concept·Grade C·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.

Plain-English Definition

Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.

Feynman Explanation

A bird in the hand discounts the entire bush by 40%.

Core Principle

Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Pending editorial review.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

A bird in the hand discounts the entire bush by 40%.

Examples

Everyday
  • Employees prefer a smaller guaranteed bonus to a larger probabilistic one.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Risk aversion at the top of the org kills bets the bottom would happily take.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Separate decisions you can repeat from one-shot bets; tolerate risk where you can average.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
C (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★☆☆☆
Intervention Confidence
2 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Conservative model defaults reflect built-in risk aversion as much as safety.
Amplifying Incentives
Risk aversion at the top of the org kills bets the bottom would happily take.
Org Failure Modes
Risk aversion at the top of the org kills bets the bottom would happily take.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Separate decisions you can repeat from one-shot bets; tolerate risk where you can average.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Separate decisions you can repeat from one-shot bets; tolerate risk where you can average.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Separate decisions you can repeat from one-shot bets; tolerate risk where you can average.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Conservative model defaults reflect built-in risk aversion as much as safety.
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0585 · COG
Risk Aversion
RALFLoss FramingAcAccountabilityASAdverse SelectionAuAuthorityAwAweBLBalancing LoopBeBelongingCACollective Action Pr…CoCompetenceCOConflict of Interest

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.