Scientific Definition
Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.
Plain-English Definition
Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.
Feynman Explanation
A bird in the hand discounts the entire bush by 40%.
Core Principle
Preference for certain outcomes over uncertain ones of equal expected value.
Mechanisms
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
A bird in the hand discounts the entire bush by 40%.
Examples
- Employees prefer a smaller guaranteed bonus to a larger probabilistic one.
- Risk aversion at the top of the org kills bets the bottom would happily take.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Separate decisions you can repeat from one-shot bets; tolerate risk where you can average.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Separate decisions you can repeat from one-shot bets; tolerate risk where you can average.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Describing a choice in terms of potential losses to trigger loss aversion.
Clear ownership of outcomes, not just tasks.
Asymmetric information attracts the worst counterparties.
We defer to perceived expertise, rank, or uniform.
Vastness that exceeds existing schemas dissolves the self briefly.
Negative feedback returns a system toward a target.
Membership in a group is a baseline human need.
Individually rational choices that produce a collectively bad outcome.
We seek tasks where we feel effective and improving.
Competing loyalties that compromise judgment.
Value is judged against whatever sits next to it.
Outcomes depend on aligning choices, not on who 'wins.'