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The Incentives Lab
All Layers / Layer 03
Incentives OS · Layer 3

Game Theory

Every incentive lives inside a game. Find the game and the strategy follows.

What game is being played — and what is the equilibrium?

Canonical thinkers

  • John Nash
  • Thomas Schelling
  • Robert Axelrod
  • John von Neumann

Seed concepts

Underlined seeds link to their full glossary entry. Plain seeds are pending a definition page.

Typed connections

Full graph →

How this layer reinforces, counteracts, or depends on the rest of the system.

  • Reinforces·Layer
    This layer reinforces Systems Thinking

    Strategic equilibria become feedback loops once you let the game iterate; both predict structural lock-in.

  • Depends on·Layer
    AI & Alignment depends on this layer

    Alignment is a multi-agent game; AI safety reduces to mechanism design once capability is high enough.

  • Instance of·Layer
    Negotiation is an instance of this layer

    Negotiation is the most-played repeated game in human life — Fisher & Ury is applied Schelling.

  • Explains·HBE
    This layer explains Principal-Agent Problem

    Principal–agent is a textbook asymmetric-information game; the solution space is mechanism design.

Elements in this layer

21 HBEs
COGAdverse Selection

Asymmetric information attracts the worst counterparties.

SOCBehavioral Game Theory

Game theory adjusted for how humans actually play — including fairness, reciprocity, and limited reasoning.

COGCollective Action Problem

Individually rational choices that produce a collectively bad outcome.

INCCollege Prestige Signaling

Employers screen by school name, rewarding admission rather than developed skill.

SOCCooperation

Coordinated action that produces outcomes unavailable to individual actors.

COGCoordination Cost

Working together has a cost that scales with the number of people.

COGCoordination Game

Outcomes depend on aligning choices, not on who 'wins.'

COGCostly Signaling

Signals whose value depends on being expensive to fake.

COGFree Rider Problem

People consume shared resources without contributing.

SOCGame Theory

Decisions depend on what other strategic actors will do.

INCMoral Hazard

Insulation from risk changes the risks people take.

SYSNash Equilibrium

A state where no player benefits from changing strategy unilaterally.

INCOutsourcing Without Oversight

Lower headline cost masks coordination failures, IP leakage, and quality erosion.

INCPrincipal-Agent Problem

Agents act in their own interest, not the principal's.

SOCPrisoner's Dilemma

Individual rationality produces collective irrationality.

SOCPublic Goods Game

Players choose how much to contribute to a shared pot; selfish theory predicts zero, real humans contribute, and punishment of free-riders sustains cooperation.

SYSQuantal Response Equilibrium

A behavioral relaxation of Nash: players choose better strategies more often, but not always — errors are smooth, not binary.

COGSchelling Point

The default coordination outcome people converge on without communicating.

COGSignaling

Costly actions that credibly communicate hard-to-observe traits.

COGStag Hunt

Coordination problem where cooperation pays more but defection is safer.

SOCTit for Tat

Start cooperative; copy your counterpart's last move thereafter.