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The Incentives Lab
HBT-INC-0190 · Dimension INC · Incentives

NSF Conservative-Research Bias

Grant cycles favor safe, incremental work over high-risk breakthroughs.

Education Perverse Pattern·Perverse Incentive·Grade C·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Grant cycles favor safe, incremental work over high-risk breakthroughs.

Plain-English Definition

Grant cycles favor safe, incremental work over high-risk breakthroughs.

Feynman Explanation

Pay only for sure things, and you'll pay for nothing new.

Core Principle

Grant cycles favor safe, incremental work over high-risk breakthroughs.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Grant cycles favor safe, incremental work over high-risk breakthroughs.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Funder risk preferences shape national R&D portfolios.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Pay only for sure things, and you'll pay for nothing new.

Examples

Everyday
  • Mid-career scientists drifting toward predictable proposals.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Funder risk preferences shape national R&D portfolios.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Carve-outs for high-risk grants. Lottery-style allocation tranches.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
C (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
4 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Funder risk preferences shape national R&D portfolios.
Amplifying Incentives
Funder risk preferences shape national R&D portfolios.
Org Failure Modes
Funder risk preferences shape national R&D portfolios.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Carve-outs for high-risk grants. Lottery-style allocation tranches.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Carve-outs for high-risk grants. Lottery-style allocation tranches.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Carve-outs for high-risk grants. Lottery-style allocation tranches.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-INC-0190 · INC
NSF Conservative-Research Bias
NCAdAdjunctificationAtAttendance-as-OutcomeCPCollege Prestige Sig…CRCollege RankingsGMGainful-Employment M…GOGPA OptimizationGIGrade InflationGRGraduation Rate MetricHVHomework Volume SignalRGRanking Game Inflation

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.