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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0376 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Hyperbolic Discounting

We disproportionately prefer rewards now over rewards later.

Decision Bias·Cognitive Bias·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

We disproportionately prefer rewards now over rewards later.

Plain-English Definition

We disproportionately prefer rewards now over rewards later.

Feynman Explanation

Long-term value is rounded down by the next earnings call.

Core Principle

We disproportionately prefer rewards now over rewards later.

Mechanisms

Psychological

We disproportionately prefer rewards now over rewards later.

Behavioral Economic

Pending editorial review.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Long-term value is rounded down by the next earnings call.

Examples

Everyday
  • R&D cuts to make a quarter, then rationalized as 'efficiency.'
Modern (Organizational)
  • Strategic patience punished by quarterly time horizons.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Time-weighted decision models. Multi-year scorecards alongside quarterly ones.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
AI infrastructure under-funded because returns sit two years out.
Amplifying Incentives
Strategic patience punished by quarterly time horizons.
Org Failure Modes
Strategic patience punished by quarterly time horizons.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Time-weighted decision models. Multi-year scorecards alongside quarterly ones.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Time-weighted decision models. Multi-year scorecards alongside quarterly ones.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Time-weighted decision models. Multi-year scorecards alongside quarterly ones.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
AI infrastructure under-funded because returns sit two years out.
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0376 · COG
Hyperbolic Discounting
HDABAction BiasAHAffect HeuristicABAnchoring BiasDEDecoy EffectDEDefault EffectEEEndowment EffectFEFraming EffectIEIKEA EffectIBInformation BiasLOLaw of Triviality + …

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.