Scientific Definition
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Plain-English Definition
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Feynman Explanation
The story is true. The story is also rare. Both can be true.
Core Principle
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
Mechanisms
We ignore underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
The story is true. The story is also rare. Both can be true.
Examples
- Fearing a rare disaster while ignoring the common one happening right now.
- Risk programs that miss the modal failure while obsessing over the dramatic one.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Always state base rates alongside narratives.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Always state base rates alongside narratives.
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Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
We prefer known risks to unknown ones, even when the unknown is better.
Believing a specific scenario is more likely than its more general one.
Believing past random events influence future independent ones.
Believing streaks predict future streaks.
Underestimating the probability of bad outcomes — especially to us.
Overestimating the probability of bad outcomes.
Worst-cases assumed as base-cases because they 'feel responsible.'
We underestimate time and cost; we overestimate benefit.
We prefer eliminating a small risk completely over reducing a larger one partially.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Systematic deviations from rationality in judgment.
Doing something feels safer than doing nothing — even when nothing wins.