Scientific Definition
Reason in distributions, not in points.
Plain-English Definition
Reason in distributions, not in points.
Feynman Explanation
Forecasts without error bars are statements of preference.
Core Principle
Reason in distributions, not in points.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Reason in distributions, not in points.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Strategy under uncertainty.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Forecasts without error bars are statements of preference.
Examples
- Investment, planning, AI safety.
- Strategy under uncertainty.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Require ranges, not points, on all forecasts.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Require ranges, not points, on all forecasts.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.