Scientific Definition
Treating real-world uncertainty like a game with clear, known rules.
Plain-English Definition
Treating real-world uncertainty like a game with clear, known rules.
Feynman Explanation
The real world does not have a rulebook or a referee.
Core Principle
Treating real-world uncertainty like a game with clear, known rules.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Treating real-world uncertainty like a game with clear, known rules.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Models from games fail when the rules are unknown and changing.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The real world does not have a rulebook or a referee.
Examples
- Using normal distributions to model extreme market events.
- Models from games fail when the rules are unknown and changing.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Stress-test models against unknown-unknown scenarios.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Stress-test models against unknown-unknown scenarios.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
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Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.