Scientific Definition
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Plain-English Definition
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Feynman Explanation
Beliefs as probabilities. Evidence as updates. Both mandatory.
Core Principle
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Decision quality under uncertainty.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Beliefs as probabilities. Evidence as updates. Both mandatory.
Examples
- Forecast revision. Strategy adjustment.
- Decision quality under uncertainty.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Use Bayes-shaped reasoning even informally on big calls.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Use Bayes-shaped reasoning even informally on big calls.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
A quick way to estimate how long it takes an investment to double at a given growth rate.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.
We ignore sample size when judging probability.