S-Curve is technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0592, within the Markets family. The core principle: technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
Scientific Definition
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Plain-English Definition
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Feynman Explanation
Most companies invest at the top of the S and harvest at the bottom of the next.
Core Principle
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Reading where on the curve a technology actually is.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Most companies invest at the top of the S and harvest at the bottom of the next.
Examples
- Mobile, cloud, AI.
- Reading where on the curve a technology actually is.
Pending editorial review.
Original analysis from The Incentives Lab — how this element behaves inside real payoff structures.
Why this element matters to incentive design
Most organizations meet this element as a personnel problem. It is not one. The mechanism underneath it is straightforward: technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau. You can recognize it in the field by its signature: most companies invest at the top of the S and harvest at the bottom of the next. Every element in the Cognition dimension changes the perceived payoff of an action before the action happens, which is exactly where incentive design has leverage.
How it gets exploited
Left undesigned, reading where on the curve a technology actually is. It is amplified whenever reading where on the curve a technology actually is. Inside organizations that shows up as reading where on the curve a technology actually is. The pattern is the same one Goodhart's Law describes: the measurable proxy attracts the effort, and the purpose behind it quietly loses funding.
How the Lab designs around it
The redesign move is to maintain a parallel S-curve in early R&D continuously. Treat it as infrastructure. Once you can see it in your own system, most of the argument about culture resolves itself.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Maintain a parallel S-curve in early R&D continuously.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Maintain a parallel S-curve in early R&D continuously.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
The rate at which customers (or employees) leave over a period.
The gap between early adopters and the early majority kills most products.
Innovators → early adopters → early majority → late majority → laggards.
Low-end or new-market entrants overtake established incumbents.
Prices driven far above intrinsic value by feedback loops of belief and behavior.
Asset prices fully reflect available information; you can't reliably beat the market.
Doing everything right by current customers can kill you.
Customers hire products to do a job in their life.
Aggregating many niche markets equals or exceeds the mainstream.
Beliefs about reality shape the reality.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).
Where S-Curve is cited in the corpus
Essays, field guides, and diagnostics from The Incentives Lab that apply this element.
- EssayGoodhart's Law in the Real World
How measurable proxies capture judgment.
- EssayThe Perverse Incentives Hiding in Your KPIs
Cognitive shortcuts turned into scorecards.
- EssayAI Agents Inherit Your Incentives
How this element propagates into automated systems.
- CourseIncentives 101
The free ten-part primer on reading a payoff structure.
- ReferenceThe incentive glossary
Definitions for every mental model, bias, and fallacy in the corpus.
- ReferenceThe Periodic Table of Human Behavior
The full 1,267-element map this page belongs to.
Questions about S-Curve
- What is S-Curve?
- S-Curve is technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0592, within the Markets family. The core principle: technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
- What is an example of S-Curve?
- Reading where on the curve a technology actually is. The Incentives Lab catalogs everyday, organizational, and historical instances of this element on its Human Behavior Taxonomy™ page (HBT-COG-0592).
- How is S-Curve exploited?
- Reading where on the curve a technology actually is.
- How do you design around S-Curve?
- Maintain a parallel S-curve in early R&D continuously.
- Which behavioral dimension does S-Curve belong to?
- S-Curve is classified in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™, family "Markets", class "Mental Model". Its permanent identifier is HBT-COG-0592 and its evidence grade is B.