Scientific Definition
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Plain-English Definition
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Feynman Explanation
Most companies invest at the top of the S and harvest at the bottom of the next.
Core Principle
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Technologies grow slowly, then explode, then plateau.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Reading where on the curve a technology actually is.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Most companies invest at the top of the S and harvest at the bottom of the next.
Examples
- Mobile, cloud, AI.
- Reading where on the curve a technology actually is.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Maintain a parallel S-curve in early R&D continuously.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Maintain a parallel S-curve in early R&D continuously.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
The rate at which customers (or employees) leave over a period.
The gap between early adopters and the early majority kills most products.
Innovators → early adopters → early majority → late majority → laggards.
Low-end or new-market entrants overtake established incumbents.
Prices driven far above intrinsic value by feedback loops of belief and behavior.
Asset prices fully reflect available information; you can't reliably beat the market.
Doing everything right by current customers can kill you.
Customers hire products to do a job in their life.
Aggregating many niche markets equals or exceeds the mainstream.
Beliefs about reality shape the reality.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).