Scientific Definition
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average ones.
Plain-English Definition
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average ones.
Feynman Explanation
The best quarter is usually followed by an average one. Not because you got worse.
Core Principle
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average ones.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average ones.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Misattributing mean reversion to skill or intervention is common.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The best quarter is usually followed by an average one. Not because you got worse.
Examples
- A star hire's second year is less stellar than their first.
- Misattributing mean reversion to skill or intervention is common.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Expect reversion and distinguish it from real performance changes.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Expect reversion and distinguish it from real performance changes.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Extreme results tend to be followed by less extreme ones.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.
Average outcomes across the population differ from outcomes across time for one person.
A rough calculation using order-of-magnitude reasoning.
In quantum mechanics, certain pairs of properties cannot both be precisely known.