Adoption Curve (AI) is innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific. It sits in the Incentives dimension (INC) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-INC-0009, within the Adoption family. The core principle: innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
Scientific Definition
Innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific.
Plain-English Definition
Innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific.
Feynman Explanation
Stage one bought tools. Stage two will redesign work.
Core Principle
Innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific.
Mechanisms
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Stage one bought tools. Stage two will redesign work.
Examples
- Diffusion patterns observable across industries.
- Strategy phasing.
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Original analysis from The Incentives Lab — how this element behaves inside real payoff structures.
Why this element matters to incentive design
When this element shows up in a diagnostic, the instinct is to train people out of it. Training rarely moves it. The mechanism underneath it operates in the Incentives dimension — what makes behavior more or less likely?. You can recognize it in the field by its signature: stage one bought tools. Stage two will redesign work. Every element in the Incentives dimension changes the perceived payoff of an action before the action happens, which is exactly where incentive design has leverage.
How it gets exploited
Left undesigned, strategy phasing. It is amplified whenever strategy phasing. Inside organizations that shows up as strategy phasing. The pattern is the same one Goodhart's Law describes: the measurable proxy attracts the effort, and the purpose behind it quietly loses funding.
How the Lab designs around it
The redesign move is to know which curve segment you're targeting. Pitch accordingly. Treat it as infrastructure. Once you can see it in your own system, most of the argument about culture resolves itself.
Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Know which curve segment you're targeting. Pitch accordingly.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Know which curve segment you're targeting. Pitch accordingly.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Discounting algorithmic advice even when superior.
AI bolted onto existing workflows to look forward-leaning.
Redesigning roles around AI capability.
AI pilots that succeed and never scale.
Pre-deployment analysis of who loses what.
Teams under-reporting AI capability to protect comp or status.
Employees using unauthorized AI tools to get work done.
AI doesn't just replace tasks — it threatens identities.
Written rules about how AI may be used internally.
AI system that takes actions to achieve goals, often across tools.
When the agent acts, who's responsible?
Augmentation strategy vs. substitution strategy.
Where Adoption Curve (AI) is cited in the corpus
Essays, field guides, and diagnostics from The Incentives Lab that apply this element.
- Field guideIncentives: definition, types, examples
The parent field guide for this element.
- ReferenceThe laws of incentives
Goodhart, Campbell, and the Cobra Effect.
- EssayAI Agents Inherit Your Incentives
How this element propagates into automated systems.
- ReferenceThe incentive glossary
Definitions for every mental model, bias, and fallacy in the corpus.
- ReferenceThe Periodic Table of Human Behavior
The full 1,267-element map this page belongs to.
Questions about Adoption Curve (AI)
- What is Adoption Curve (AI)?
- Adoption Curve (AI) is innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific. It sits in the Incentives dimension (INC) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-INC-0009, within the Adoption family. The core principle: innovators → early adopters → majority → laggards, AI-specific. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
- What is an example of Adoption Curve (AI)?
- Strategy phasing. The Incentives Lab catalogs everyday, organizational, and historical instances of this element on its Human Behavior Taxonomy™ page (HBT-INC-0009).
- How is Adoption Curve (AI) exploited?
- Strategy phasing.
- How do you design around Adoption Curve (AI)?
- Know which curve segment you're targeting. Pitch accordingly.
- Which behavioral dimension does Adoption Curve (AI) belong to?
- Adoption Curve (AI) is classified in the Incentives dimension (INC) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™, family "Adoption", class "AI-Behavioral Coupling". Its permanent identifier is HBT-INC-0009 and its evidence grade is C.