Scientific Definition
Probability × payoff, summed across outcomes.
Plain-English Definition
Probability × payoff, summed across outcomes.
Feynman Explanation
Outcomes are noise. Decisions are signal.
Core Principle
Probability × payoff, summed across outcomes.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Probability × payoff, summed across outcomes.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Make decisions by expected value; judge them by process, not outcome.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Outcomes are noise. Decisions are signal.
Examples
- A 10% chance of winning $1M is worth $100K in expectation.
- Make decisions by expected value; judge them by process, not outcome.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Document EV thinking on big decisions. Re-read after the outcome.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Document EV thinking on big decisions. Re-read after the outcome.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Decisions optimize utility, not value.
Evaluating an argument's logic based on whether you agree with the conclusion.
Decisions are shaped by who we believe we are — not only by monetary payoffs.
Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.
Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific, vivid information.
Posterior = (likelihood × prior) / evidence.
Update beliefs in proportion to the strength of new evidence.
Start with a prior; update with new evidence.
Novices experiencing early success, often due to variance and small samples.
High-impact, hard-to-predict, retrospectively explainable events.
Striking pattern that is statistically expected in large samples.
Reasoning in distributions — ranges and probabilities — rather than points.