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The Incentives Lab
HBT-IDN-0010 · Dimension IDN · Identity

Expected Utility (vs. Expected Value)

Decisions optimize utility, not value.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Decisions optimize utility, not value.

Plain-English Definition

Decisions optimize utility, not value.

Feynman Explanation

$1M to a billionaire is not $1M to a startup.

Core Principle

Decisions optimize utility, not value.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Decisions optimize utility, not value.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Why two rational actors can disagree on the same EV.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

$1M to a billionaire is not $1M to a startup.

Examples

Everyday
  • Risk aversion in capital allocation.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Why two rational actors can disagree on the same EV.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Factor utility curves into decision frameworks for big bets.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Why two rational actors can disagree on the same EV.
Amplifying Incentives
Why two rational actors can disagree on the same EV.
Org Failure Modes
Why two rational actors can disagree on the same EV.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Factor utility curves into decision frameworks for big bets.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Factor utility curves into decision frameworks for big bets.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Factor utility curves into decision frameworks for big bets.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-IDN-0010 · IDN
Expected Utility (vs. Expected Value)
EUBBBelief BiasEVExpected ValueIEIdentity EconomicsRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessAFAffective ForecastingABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoring

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.