Scientific Definition
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
Plain-English Definition
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
Feynman Explanation
Define success after you see the result. Stunning track record.
Core Principle
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
Mechanisms
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Define success after you see the result. Stunning track record.
Examples
- Selecting the markets where a strategy worked; ignoring the rest.
- Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
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Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
A single story used as proof of a general claim.
n=1 generalized to n=everyone.
Quoting only the studies that support the position.
Selecting only the data that supports the conclusion.
Sweeping conclusions from a small sample.
Generalizing from winners while ignoring identical losers.
Attacking the person rather than the argument.
If A then B; B happened; therefore A.
It's true because authority says so.
Common sense says so, therefore it's true.
Believing something is true because of the consequences of its truth.
Substituting feeling for argument.